Welcome back for Part 2 of my fourth annualish Win Totals Over/Under Prediction article where I give a brief overview of each team. You can find Part 1 here. The over/under numbers that I’m predicting against are listed as the Vegas betting totals for NBA wins. Each of my picks (over or under the listed win total) are what my bet would be for whether the team wins more or less than the win total listed by Vegas.

Note: Each of these over/under predictions is independent of the others.

Memphis Grizzlies – 45.5

2022-23 Record: 51-31

The Grizzlies have been a hard-nosed, gritty team that always seems to outplay their talent. They also added Marcus Smart, who, despite the fact that he will seem completely out place not playing for the Celtics, will also somehow feel like he’s exactly where he belongs in Memphis. The Grizzlies (presumed) top 7 of Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., Marcus Smart, Desmond Bane, Brandon Clarke, Xavier Tillman, and Luke Kennard should continue to outplay opponents, but after losing Dillon Brooks and Tyus Jones this offseason, plus the season-ending surgery of Steven Adams, Memphis’s depth has really taken a hit.

I’m not a fan of John Konchar, but he might show something more? I trust Zaire Williams to do well with a few more minutes, and it’s not crazy to think Jake LaRavia and David Roddy could develop into decent role players, but there’s now a lot of ‘what ifs’ for a team hoping to compete right away. I’m not saying they can’t make a playoff push, but the margin has become razor thin, exacerbated by the fact that Ja Morant will miss the first 25 games due his gun-related suspension. Derrick Rose figures to play a role in his absence, but it’s not 2011 anymore and that’s not exactly a like-for-like replacement.

I think the Grizzlies struggle out of the gate, and the late playoff push isn’t enough. 40 wins and the play-in. Under.

Miami Heat – 44.5

2022-23 Record: 44-38

Jimmy Butler is the most overrated player in the league, maybe in the history of the league. People act as though he’s this playoff killer, when in reality, he’s got just as many duds as good performances.

Which of these 2 players is better:
A:
16.2 ppg on .602/.489/.875 splits
6.4 rpg
1.7 apg
1.5 stocks/game
+31

B:
24.7 ppg on .420/.348/.833 splits
7.6 rpg
6.1 apg
3.0 stocks/game
+9

A (the one you should have picked) is Caleb Martin in the Eastern Conference Finals. B is Jimmy Butler in those same Conference Finals. Yet the narrative is he “dragged the Heat” to the Finals? Nah. Fuck Jimmy Butler, all my friends hate Jimmy Butler.

Quick aside – Miami plays in Minnesota on Saturday, and I’m putting EVERYTHING on the Wolves. Bloodbath. CAN’T WAIT.

So, on to the prediction. Yeah… Miami is an over. They had a bad regular season last year and still won 44 games. They’ll win more this year.

Minnesota Timberwolves – 44.5

2022-23 Record: 42-40

OVER. MASSIVE OVER. This is Vince Carter 2000 dunk contest levels of it’s over.

I’m biased (of course), but I honestly can’t find a flaw with this roster. Are they in trouble when all the contracts kick in next season? Sure. But that’s a future problem. Even if you don’t believe in the fit of the pieces, this is a team heavily disappointed last season, still won 40 games, and brings back Karl-Anthony Towns after missing most of last season. How is this not a 50-win team?

The over/under is set at 44.5, and the consensus seems to be this is a borderline playoff team. I heavily disagree, and I’ll address the main criticism of the team in 2 parts:

First, the Towns/Gobert 2-big fit. I understand that people think it might not work. I see why they think that – it’s been difficult, and we’ve only seen flashes of this team operating well together. But what is the main issue? The national media would have you think that it’s defense – how can Gobert, Edwards, and Towns exist together on the court, and still have a decent defense? Well, that trio last year had a defensive rating of 104.4… Not only would that be the best defensive rating in the NBA last season, but it would be the best defensive rating by a WIDE margin. (For reference: that trio was 5.5 points per 100 possessions better than the best defense in the entire league (Cleveland) – the same margin between the Cavs and the Pacers (22^nd best defense in the league) last year).

The actual issues with the fit last season was the offense, not the defense, with the Wolves having difficulty incorporating Rudy, while he seemed to consistently clog the lane. Ignoring for a moment that DLo refused to pass to Gobert, that KAT’s shot wasn’t falling upon his return, and that Naz and Jaden had injuries at the worst possible time… Are we really suggesting that a team with Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns, and a Mike Conley/Rudy Gobert PnR structure is going to struggle to score? Give me a break. This will be a top 10 offense, and since we’re using last year as a metric, it’s also a top 5 defense.

The second part of the criticism seems to be the discussion of “who is the alpha” and whether KAT can co-exist with Ant now that he’s ascended to (likely) superstar status.

(Quick Aside: I’ve always hated these discussions, because they seem to come from people with a flawed understanding of how teams operate – sure Shaq and Kobe didn’t last… but they also won 3 titles before it was untenable! What are we talking about?)

Even giving credence to the idea that a team needs a single alpha along with a group that complements them… How do the Timberwolves not fit? Towns has led the Timberwolves in FGA in just 2 of his 8 seasons, deferring to Wiggins, Butler, (even Dlo!) and now Edwards with zero hint of any resentment. But I’m supposed to believe that he’s selfish and won’t take a secondary role? What the hell has everyone been watching?

Even if you’re not onboard with the fit or the chemistry of the top end talent of the Wolves, the back half of this roster is also a masterclass. Kyle ‘Slomo’ Anderson was a godsend last year, and his contract is a massive steal. Nickeal Alexander-Walker might be the best bench player in the league, let alone on the Wolves, and Jaden McDaniels (sorry for including him in the ‘back end of the roster’ section) might be the best defender in the league – his new contract (5 years/$136M) is already a steal for Minnesota. The additions of Shake Milton, Troy Brown Jr., and 33^rd overall pick Leonard Miller are a boon to an already deep roster, and if Jordan McLaughlin (worst player in the NBA 2022-23) can return to pre-injury levels (the guy DLo was benched for in the 2022 playoffs) he’s a solid rotation piece.

The Wolves will end up having 12+ guys fighting for minutes, and it’s going to be difficult to sit some of them. This roster is stacked.

Naz Reid. Wolves back. 55 wins. Over.

Milwaukee Bucks – 53.5

2022-23 Record: 58-24

I’m usually a skeptic of just throwing multiple star players together and thinking that it’s going to work, especially at the expense of continuity and depth (shoutout Jrue Holiday), but the new Giannis/Dame pairing the Bucks have put together makes too much sense to doubt it.

Giannis has already shown he can be the top guy on a championship team, but his best fit is actually as a secondary scorer and in transition, which will be perfect with Lillard. No disrespect to AD/LeBron, KD/Booker or the Boston Jays, but Giannis/Dame is the best duo the league, and it’s not that close.

I think the Bucks repeat as the 1-seed, but also come out of the East this year. Call me crazy, but I think they win 60+ games. I’ll hedge slightly with 55 wins and the over.

New Orleans Pelicans – 44.5

2022-23 Record: 42-40

The Pelicans have one of the highest ceilings in the league, but also one of the lowest floors. This is mainly due to the fact that they’re a contender when Zion Williamson plays, and a lottery team when he sits. I could go into more detail about how I love the complementary pieces they’ve added around Brandon Ingram and Williamson over the past few years (Herb Jones, Trey Murphy III, Jose Alvarado, Larry Nance Jr., CJ McCollum, Jonas Valančiūnas, and Naji Marshall are all solid contributors!), but this team runs on whether Zion is active.

I love the upside of this team, and while some people choose to see the ugliness in this world, the disarray, I choose to see the beauty.

Over.

New York Knicks – 45.5

2022-23 Record: 47-35

The Knicks were a nice surprise last season, and Jalen Brunson was a revelation. There’s a pretty clear ceiling on the trio of Brunson, Julius Randle, and RJ Barrett, but just because a team doesn’t have a championship window doesn’t mean they should be dismissed. The Knicks, after years (decades?) of mismanagement, have finally started to win along the fringes. Immanuel Quickley, Mitchell Robinson, and Josh Hart are all excellent role players, Isaiah Hartenstein and Quentin Grimes are solid and will look to develop into bigger roles, and the addition of Donte DiVincenzo to reconnect with his Villanova teammate will fit really nicely within this core.

New York slightly overachieved last season, but I really don’t think it was a fluke. This team is solid top to bottom, and Tom Thibodeau won’t have them resting during the season. I like their chances at another top 5 seed. Over.

Oklahoma City Thunder – 44.5

2022-23 Record: 40-42

I understand the OKC hype – I really do! I just disagree on what stage they’re at. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is elite, and has shown (even more) improvement on both ends of the ball. Chet Holmgren is my pick for Rookie of the Year. The Williamses (Jaylin and Jalen) are good young pieces with massive upside. Lu Dort is a very good defender, and has flashed offensively. Giddey has improved every year, and could very well be a 2nd star alongside SGA! So what isn’t to like?

To start, they’re very young and very inexperienced, and look to rely even more on their young talent this year. It’s a smart move to develop those young guys, but it’s just not a recipe for a lot of wins this year. “But Jon, they won 40 games last year, surely adding Chet will mean they win even more this year!” That’s a good point, and I don’t hate the logic… I just don’t see it yet. They made a big run at the end of last season, but a lot of those wins were against bad teams already out of the playoffs and teams with injured or resting stars. Maybe they still make a playoff push this year, but I think they’re likely in the 8-10 range this season. 41 wins and the under.

Orlando Magic – 37.5

2022-23 Record: 34-48

I absolutely LOVE what the Magic are building in Orlando. Paolo Banchero is future MVP candidate, and I don’t think people realize how dominant his rookie year was. The numbers don’t jump off the page, but if you watch this guy play, it’s clear they have their star.

I wrote last year that Franz Wagner is an “absolute beast who will be a household name by the end of the season.” While he may not yet be a household name, he’s starting to get recognized for the star he is. (His World Cup win with Germany should also help his cause).

They re-signed Cole Anthony, and bring back the majority of their rotation (Gary Harris, Franz’s brother Moritz, Wendell Carter Jr., Markelle Fultz, and Jalen Suggs). They also hope – as all NBA fans should – Jonathan Isaac can finally return for an extended run. On top of that, they added 2 lottery picks (Anthony Black and Jett Howard), rounding out a really nice core that looks to be dangerous in the years to come.

All that said, they’re not quite ready. This team could be just a year away from winning a playoff series, but similar to the Thunder, they’ll need to rely too heavily on inexperienced players to do too much damage this year. Overall, while they’re not contenders (yet!), 38 wins just isn’t that many in the East. Give me the over.

Philadelphia 76ers – 47.5

2022-23 Record: 54-28

The 76ers are in shambles after last postseason. Harden and Embiid collapsed in the playoffs, while Jokić settled any remaining MVP debates. Harden wants out, Embiid likely isn’t far behind, and it seems like the window has closed on the 76ers.

But… are we sure? They still have Embiid! They still have Harden, an ascending Tyrese Maxey, Paul Reed, acquired Kelly Oubre Jr., and have a slew of veteran contributors (Patrick Beverley, PJ Tucker, Tobias Harris, Danny Green). Are we sure this team is going to crumble just like that? They won 54 games last season, and I think Embiid comes back trying to show that the MVP wasn’t a fluke (or a voting mistake, which it was), but that he’s actually the best player in the league. Even if he’s not, this can be a 50-win team.

Over.

Portland Trail Blazers – 27.5

2022-23 Record: 33-49

I really wanted to write something snarky here like “This team only won 33 games last year, and now they traded Lillard. Easy under.” but I actually love the way they’ve gone about their rebuild.

Anfernee Simons has shown flashes of being a suitable replacement (‘broke man’s version’ seems too derogatory, even if accurate) of Lillard, averaging over 27 points per game when Dame sat last season. Shaedon Sharpe has unlimited athleticism, and a sky-high ceiling, even if he hasn’t really put it together yet. They brought in veterans who are not just solid, but actually very good in Malcolm Brogdon & Robert Williams, and drafted Scoot Henderson 3rd overall who seems ready to take the keys. This team will be better than people expect, and I think they finish in a similar spot to last season.

30 wins and the over.

Sacramento Kings – 44.5

2022-23 Record: 48-34

The Kings are the trendy pick for a regression, and it feels like the rationale has largely been “they had a lot of injury luck” and “it’s the Kings!” But I don’t see many people talking about how good this team actually is.

De’Aaron Fox led the league in clutch stats (nobody else was close), Sabonis is the best passing big in NBA history not named Nikola, and they have really good pieces all around them. They’re literally the Nuggets-lite, and the rest of the roster might not even be worse overall than the team around Jokić. Kevin Huerter, Malik Monk, Harrison Barnes, Keegan Murray, and Davion Mitchell are all a solid fit on any team, and especially alongside Sabonis. Oh and did I mention that Barnes is the only player in their rotation older than 27? Why can’t this team be even better than last year?

50 wins and the over. Light the fucking beam.

San Antonio Spurs – 28.5

2022-23 Record: 22-60

Last year I wrote “They have zero top-level talent… [and] maybe I’m giving them too much credit (since this is arguably the worst roster in the league), but until Pop finally misses one, I’m never betting against him again. Over [22.5].” They went under with 22 wins, but I don’t think the logic was flawed, and nobody can say the Spurs don’t have top-level talent anymore.

Wemby and Popovich. Need I say more? Over.

Toronto Raptors – 36.5

2022-23 Record: 41-41

The Raptors regressed last season, and it didn’t feel like it was a fluke. They lost key contributors, and (shockingly) got worse. This summer, they tried the same strategy, and I think it will turn out the same. With VanVleet gone, I expect the Raptors to struggle, and wouldn’t be surprised if OG Anunoby, Gary Trent Jr., and possibly even Pascal Siakam are moved prior to the trade deadline. This team enters full rebuild mode around Scottie Barnes, who isn’t quite ready to be the main guy on a good team.

I think they could easily limp their way back to the play-in games, but the more likely outcome is the lottery. 30 wins and a rebuild. Under.

Utah Jazz – 35.5

2022-23 Record: 37-45

Arguably my best pick last year was the Jazz over [24.5], writing: “Everyone talked about the picks they got (they currently have 9 extra first round picks over the next 7 drafts), but not enough has been said about the roster they’ve assembled. The Jazz will not be as bad as people expect… This team will surprise people, and I’d be surprised if they’re a pushover.”

That was dead on, and it remains the same today. Lauri Markkanen was the most deserving winner of the Most Improved Player award that we’ve seen in years, going from solid role player to bona fide star. Walker Kessler provided an immediate impact, and will anchor their defense for years. Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton led a far better backcourt than I think any of us were expecting. Given the influx of talent, this team is primed to compete for years to come. Still, they overachieved last year, and I think the priority will be on development in a much-improved West.

Jazz still aren’t a pushover, but only 30 wins this year for Utah. Under.

Washington Wizards – 23.5

2022-23 Record: 35-47

The Wizards rebuild after trading Bradley Beal will be one of the best League Pass teams in the NBA. Jordan Poole with an unlimited green light is always interesting. Kyle Kuzma is continuing to show out in Washington. Corey Kispert has sneakily become a really nice piece. The acquisition of Tyus Jones will be a boon to the second unit. Bilal Coulibaly looks wild and fun. Deni Avdija will be doing Deni Avdija things. I’m going to really enjoy watching this terrible team.

If it wasn’t for Detroit, they’d be in the running for last place in the East, but 24 wins is still doable. Over.

Thanks for reading, and that concludes the season predictions for 2023-24, feel free to call me a moron in the comments. I don’t care because THE NBA IS BACK, BABY!