Welcome to Part 1 of my FOURTH annualish Win Totals Over/Under Prediction article where I give my overview of the state of each team. The over/under numbers that I’m predicting against are listed as the Vegas betting totals for NBA wins. Each of my picks (over or under the listed win total) are what my bet would be for whether the team wins more or less than the win total listed by Vegas.

Every year there are are a number of factors (notably trades, injuries, orthe MonStars stealing talent) that will make some of these predictions look ridiculous. Reading back through last year’s predictions, some of my picks were dead on, such as ‘The Jazz will not be as bad as people expect… this team will surprise people, and I’d be surprised if they’re a pushover.’ or ‘Unless Jokić sustains an injury, [the Nuggets are] absolutely a 50-win team, and one of the easiest [over] picks of the year.’

Some of the predictions were not as impressive: ‘I really wanted to go over [33.5] for Sacramento, but the upside just isn’t there. 30 wins and the under.’ Yeah, they won 48 games.

In my previous iterations of over/under predictions, I went 19-11, 17-13, and finally 18-12 last year. Nobody’s perfect, but that’s a pretty good track record.

Note: Each of these over/under predictions is independent of the others.

Atlanta Hawks – 42.5

2022-23 Record: 41-41

The Hawks are led by one of the most polarizing stars in the NBA in Trae Young. His value can be difficult to determine because he’s undoubtedly one of the best offensive players in the league, and undoubtedly one of the worst defensive players in the league. He quickly went from MVP candidate to being left off All-NBA entirely. That said, I think the pendulum has swung too far, and Young has become underrated. I know it’s 3 seasons later now, but this is the same guy who led his team to the Conference Finals at age 22. Despite him getting relatively little praise over the past 3 seasons, he’s quietly averaged nearly 27/10, improving efficiency each year, even with the addition of DeJounte Murray taking some of the on-ball duties. Over that 3 year span, Atlanta’s offense has remained in the top 10 each year, and it figures to be good again this year.

This will be the first season we see Young play without John Collins, but he was sneakily very bad last year, and I don’t think that will hurt the Hawks much. More minutes for Bogdon Bogdanović, Saddiq Bey, and the newly re-signed Onyeka Okongwu will feel more like addition by subtraction. The NBA is filled with more talent than ever, and the Hawks didn’t do too much to improve their roster, but I think this team is better than it performed last season, and the increased chemistry from an extra year together will make up that difference.

Hawks eke out 44 wins and sneak into the playoffs and hit the over.

Boston Celtics – 54.5

2022-23 Record: 57-25

The Celtics made waves this offseason with the additions of Kristaps Porziņģis and Jrue Holiday. Porziņģis in particular is a great fit alongside the All-NBA pairing of Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, while Jrue Holiday is a notable upgrade over Marcus Smart. Still, these improvements cost the Celtics some of their (already limited) depth, losing Malcolm Brogdon, Robert ‘Timelord’ Williams, and Grant Williams in addition to Smart. Essentially Porziņģis and an old ~ahem~ seasoned Al Horford are the only average or better bigs left on the roster. (Sorry Luke Kornet, it’s not you, it’s me… wait actually no – it’s you).

Before you get upset, I fully expect to see Boston in the Conference Finals (again! They’re on an underrated run of going to the Conference Finals 5 of the past 7 seasons), but I think this roster will have more growing pains than most expect. Given that over the past 4 seasons Porziņģis and Horford have each averaged just 55 starts each per season, I expect their lack of depth to hurt them in the regular season. Of course, they could always make another move, but as the roster sits right now, they’re an injury away from some big looming rotation issues.

I love their ceiling, but wouldn’t shock me if they don’t win 50 games in the regular season. Under.

Brooklyn Nets – 37.5

2022-23 Record: 45-37

Mikal Bridges proved he’s a capable first option, and the Nets have surrounded him with a better than average supporting cast. They lack upside to compete near the top of the East, but this should be a really tough team, especially defensively. Cam Johnson proved he’s worth every penny of his contract, Cam Thomas has been a reliable shooter, and looks like he can play a bigger role, and Nic Claxton’s value is impossible to overstate. I also love the pickup of Lonnie Walker IV, and think he’ll fit in nicely in their rotation. Combine that with solid veteran contributors in Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith, & Royce O’Neale, and you have the makings of a solid roster…

Now… Don’t laugh. Ben Simmons is just 27 years old, and I’m still a believer. If he can return to even close his level of play from a few years ago (he looked great in preseason!) this might not just be a good defensive team, but could be the best defensive team in the league. That’s a recipe for success – 45 wins and the over.

Charlotte Hornets – 31.5

2022-23 Record: 27-55

Let me preface this by saying that I’m a lifelong Timberwolves fan… LaMelo Ball is great and has unlimited potential and it bothers me how Minnesota fans talk about him. Sure, Ant is the best player from that draft, and he has the most upside of the group, but why should that make us dislike LaMelo? LaMelo is fucking awesome! Over the past 2 seasons, he’s averaged 21ppg/8apg/6.6rpg and shot over 38% from deep on 8.5 (!!!) 3PA per game. He’s not just a good shooter, he’s a great shooter, and if he ever gets to a team where he’s not taking so many contested triples, people will start to notice how elite of a shooter he is. He’s a great rebounder, passer, and while he still falls asleep defensively at times, his defensive weakness is overstated based on what I’ve seen.

Brandon Miller was a controversial 2nd overall pick, with many criticizing the decision to select Miller over Scoot Henderson, but so far Miller has looked right at home, and is definitely a better fit next to Ball.

The rest of the roster, unfortunately just doesn’t fit together all that well, and is just frankly underwhelming. Terry Rozier can handle secondary scoring duties, and PJ Washington can be frisky, I guess? Mark Williams is a good young piece if he can stay healthy. Gordon Hayward has shown some flashes of his pre-injury self, but he’s well past his prime his flashes are not consistent enough. The only player outside of Ball and Miller who has shown any real upside is Miles Bridges, and I can speak for everyone when I say we’re wishing you the worst.

Another lackluster season brings Lamelo one step closer to becoming the next star demanding a trade. Hard under.

Chicago Bulls – 37.5

2022-23 Record: 40-42

I was wrong on the over (42.5) last year, but still like the core of this team. I wrote last year that “they don’t have a lot of high-end talent (no disrespect to DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine, but they’re not top-30 players), but they have an 10-man rotation (even without Lonzo Ball) of above average players.” I don’t know if I still agree with that, but they have a firm 7 that are the core of a good rotation, and I don’t see this team being much worse – if at all – than they were last season.

Nothing to get wildly excited about, but another 40 wins and back to the play-in with the over.

Cleveland Cavaliers – 50.5

2022-23 Record: 51-31

Each of the past 2 seasons, I’ve taken the under on the Cavs, and each of the past 2 seasons they’ve easily cleared the over. I do think this team overachieved slightly last season, but the Mobley/Allen pairing worked great alongside the Garland/Mitchell backcourt, and I think it’s a sustainable roster. Donovan Mitchell went from being one of the worst defenders in the league to passable, just by (apparently?) realizing you need to put in effort on both sides of the ball.

Quick – without Googling – how old is Jarrett Allen? He wins this year’s Steven Adams award for ‘guy I thought was way older than he actually is’ – he’s 25 this season!

Cleveland essentially brought everyone back, plus added Max Strus for a bit of added depth, and I expect a similar level of success this season. One of the hardest picks of the year, I’ll take the same record of 51-31 which gives them the slight over.

Dallas Mavericks – 43.5

2022-23 Record: 38-44

Call me a hater, but I just do not see what everyone else seems to see in this Dallas team. Luka is undeniable, Kyrie has a proven track record and is awesome (on the court and ONLY on the court!), but the rest of the roster just isn’t good. Look, Dwight Powell, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Seth Curry are fine players, but they’re not moving the needle. I like the Richaun Holmes pickup, but he’s 30 and can’t stay healthy. Their first round pick Dereck Lively II has looked good in preseason, but rarely does a rookie contribute heavily to wins. People have tried to convince me of Maxi Kleber for years. I don’t see it. Now they’re trying to convince me of Grant Williams. Please stop it – get some help.

2021 Jon: “they look closer to 45 wins and I’m betting the under [48.5].” Incorrect.

2022 Jon: “I can ‘confidently’ say that the Mavs look closer to 45 wins and I’m betting the under [48.5].” Correct.

2023 Jon: The Mavs look closer to 35 wins and betting the under. I guess I’m just a hater.

Denver Nuggets – 52.5

2022-23 Record: 53-29

The Nuggets were the best team in the Association from basically end-to-end last season. They were the 1 seed in the West and ripped through the playoffs going 16-4. This season, they figure to be the favorites from the West, and with good reason – they bring back reigning Finals MVP Nikola Jokić, along with most of their championship rotation (Murray, Gordon, Porter Jr., Caldwell-Pope, and Braun) with the notable exceptions of Jeff Green and Bruce Brown.

I hate to bet against a team that we’ve seen clicking on all cylinders, but I do think the loss of Brown will be a problem. They essentially had an 8-man rotation, and their top-6 (the starters plus Brown) absolutely wrecked opponents, and reverted to league-average when 2 of those 6 were sitting. They still have arguably the best starting 5 in the NBA, but they no longer have the 28+ minutes from Brown to shuffle around in order to keep their best lineups on the floor for most of the game. Denver addressed this depth by adding Reggie Jackson and trading future picks to take 3 players in the first 37 picks this year, but I’m not sure Jackson is a great fit, and relying on rookie minutes instead of key contributors will be felt, especially in the regular season.

I expect a (slight) regression from Denver in an improved West, and a 48-win under.

Detroit Pistons – 27.5

2022-23 Record: 17-65

Welcome to the meanest prediction I’ve ever made: the Pistons will lose more games than they did last season.

I love Cade Cunningham, and he alone should boost this team to nearly 30-wins. Add in young prospects like Isaiah Stewart, Jaden Ivey, Jalen Duren, and 5th overall pick Ausar Thompson, and you might be able to convince me that this team could get close to the over! Then I’ll remind myself that their 2nd best player is a 34 year-old Bojan Bogdanović, and that arguably nobody on the roster except for Cade would start for any playoff-caliber team.

This team is going to be very bad, and a very sad under.

Golden State Warriors – 47.5

2022-23 Record: 44-38

Going into last season (and coming off a championship) I thought the Warriors were massively overrated. I said “this is one of the few occasions in my lifetime where the defending champions bring everyone back, and I’d be shocked if they make the Finals again next season. I think the Warriors finish closer to the play-in game than the 1 seed” and I smashed the under (51.5).

This season, I think they might be a bit underrated. Sure, they lost Jordan Poole, but they added Chris Paul – I get it, he’s old! But he’s still really good! I’m not worried about the fit, either – CP3 has improved the play of the team around him in every location he’s been at.

The only thing that gives me a bit of hesitation is that the West will be a dogfight this year, and the Warriors will likely be on the upper end of load management (or should I say “minor injuries” due to the new load management restrictions). Still, given this is likely the final year in these aging stars’ championship windows, I can’t help but think they’ll be giving everything they have.

Curry and company win 50 and get the hard-fought over.

Houston Rockets – 31.5

2022-23 Record: 22-60

This is one of NBA Twitter’s favorite dark horse teams for the upcoming season. They have a ton of young talent (Tari Eason, Jabari Smith, and rookies Cam Whitmore and Amen Thompson), a few of whom look to be blossoming into studs (Jalen Green and Alperen Şengün), and have now acquired the steady hand of proven veterans (Victor Oladipo, Reggie Bullock, Fred VanVleet, and Dillon Brooks) to round out a solid 10-man rotation.

This team should be much improved, but I still can’t help thinking that they’re torn between development and competing, and while their young talent has a lot of potential, it’s mostly still just potential. We’ve seen flashes from all of them, but none are consistent enough to make me think this is going to be a good team.

28 wins and back to the lottery. Under.

Indiana Pacers – 38.5

2022-23 Record: 35-47

Pacers were perhaps the team that surprised me most last season. Tyrese Haliburton has shown that he’s a true number one, and while their assortment of role players all seem to have unique games that could make for an awkward fit, if you squint hard enough you can see the makings of a really good team. Buddy Hield has the most made 3s over the past 4 seasons, nearly 200 more than the next closest player (some random guy named Steph Curry). Miles Turner is an elite shot blocker, and shot over 37% from deep last year on good volume. Bruce Brown has already shown his chops as an elite 2-way role player who doesn’t shrink from the spotlight. Aaron Nesmith is one of my favorite players to watch who gets no love from the media. Obi Toppin could be a most improved candidate in a new situation. Benedict Mathurin was All-Rookie 1st Team for good reason.

Still, I can’t help thinking this is like the island of misfit toys. They don’t really have an offensive identity, and while they don’t have any complete individual liabilities on defense, they also don’t really have anyone elite on that end either. I think the Pacers are a candidate to be a team that’s better on paper than on the court. They seem to think so, too, with Hield requesting a trade and roster decisions seemingly on the horizon. I could see this team fighting for a playoff spot or for the bottom of the league. Either way, it should be a League Pass team to look out for.

Fuck it, I believe in the Pacers. 39 wins and the over.

Los Angeles Clippers – 45.5

2022-23 Record: 44-38

I predicted the Clippers to be the best team in the league last season, and while I was wrong (mostly due to Paul George and Kawhi Leonard playing limited time together), I think they still have an incredibly high ceiling. (For what it’s worth, when both George and Leonard have played together, they’re a ridiculous 83-35, good for 58-win pace, which was the best record in the NBA last season).

Russell Westbrook seemed to fit in nicely during his limited run with the Clippers last year, and they have decent role players alongside their two stars. Unfortunately, none of these role players have much ability to step into a lead role when either (or both) of the Clippers top guys are out. Bones Hyland could feasibly take a leap into a bigger volume role, but I’m not holding my breath.

So, the real question is whether we think that Kawhi and PG play 65+ games this season? If so, bet the over. If not, bet the under. I’m rooting for them, so I’ll stay positive and take the over.

Los Angeles Lakers – 46.5

2022-23 Record: 43-39

According to many pundits, the Lakers “won” the offseason. While I think that might be overblown, they certainly made some solid moves. Let’s break it down:

1. Re-signing their core (Rui Hachimura, Austin Reaves, & D’Angelo Russell) – they didn’t really get a discount on any of them, and I’m still concerned about DLo’s fit on this roster, but they needed to bring back their guys. Solid moves.
2. Signing Christian Wood. This was a great move and an absolute steal of a contract, but he’s also not shown that he can consistently provide much more than an average starter. Worth a swing with little downside.
3. Filling out the roster with Taurean Prince, Gabe Vincent, Jaxson Hayes, and Cam Reddish. I love Prince, and I think he’s an upgrade over Troy Brown Jr., and provides some needed depth. If you get the Vincent we saw in the Heat’s playoff run, you’ll be very happy. If you get regular season Gabe? Eh, he might barely crack the rotation. Finally, I’ve watched enough Hayes and Reddish to have zero confidence in either of them becoming good NBA players.

Overall, I don’t get the hype? At best, this roster is marginally better than last year. Anthony Davis and LeBron James have another year of wear and tear on their legs, and if you’re banking on Reaves, Hachimura, or Jarred Vanderbilt making a leap, I think you’re going to be in trouble in this Western Conference.

Lakers back to the play-in with 42 wins. Under.

Phoenix Suns – 52.5

2022-23 Record: 45-37

The Suns have the most star power in the league with Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and the newly-acquired Bradley Beal. Many were worried that this team would lack the depth to survive a full regular season, but I think they’ve done enough to put together a solid supporting cast.

Say what you will about Grayson Allen, he’s just a solid NBA player. The same goes for Damian Lee. Josh Okogie is solidly half of an elite 2-way guy. Bol Bol has a unique skillset (well, aside from maybe Wemby?) but even after 4 years in the league, it’s still a work in progress. Nurkić and Eric Gordon can still give you good minutes.

Overall, talent usually wins. They might not have the best 8-12 rotation in the league, but let’s not underestimate how good the top of this roster is. Even if only 2 of their top 3 play on a given night, they should be favored against most opponents.

53 wins. Over.

This ends part 1 of my predictions. Stay tuned for Part 2 dropping tomorrow along with my list of season predictions.